September has arrived, and it’s bringing with it peak tropical activity.

A tropical storm named Hermine could impact many of your holiday weekend plans, though there are still numerous questions about the way this meteorological story will unfold. What I’m writing about now is based on the best information that’s currently available. This will change in another 12 hours, so it’s important to check the latest forecast throughout the weekend.

Projected track of Tropical Storm Hermine from NHC as of 8 a.m.Projected track of Tropical Storm Hermine from NHC as of 8 a.m. —NHC

The first thing to know: Any impacts from Hermine won’t move in until Sunday or even Monday.

There may be some cloudiness showing up on Saturday afternoon along the south coast, but there’s also a chance that the clouds hold off until Sunday.

Sunday and Monday are the days that will most likely be impacted by the storm here in Southern New England. (If you are headed north, expect less and less of any influence to the weather from the tropical storm beyond some clouds.) Our chances for rain showers will increase Sunday into Monday, with rain mostly likely on Monday, but still not definite.

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The American model brings the storm the farthest north; other models keep it farther south.

via GIPHY

The reason I can’t be more sure of the weather for Sunday and Monday is because of two meteorological variables. The first is high pressure over northern New England. The strength and exact configuration of this system will help determine how far north the rain and wind shield travel.

The second variable is the strength of Hermine itself. The storm could weaken over the weekend and end up just spinning off the mid-Atlantic coast and not bringing us much rain at all. It could also remain a bit stronger and move farther north, carrying a windswept rainstorm to part of the region. Not matter what happens, Cape Cod and the islands will see the worst weather Sunday and Monday.

The strength and positioning of high pressure north of New England will help determine the path of HermineThe strength and positioning of high pressure north of New England will help determine the path of Hermine. —NHC

The forecast for Sunday and Monday will become clearer later today and on Friday as the storm continues to develop.

We’ll get a better idea of how the steering current of the atmosphere will carry Hermine. At this point, I think it’s a good idea to plan on at least a cloudy finish to the weekend with possible rain.

Remember, we desperately need rain, and missing this opportunity would just allow the drought to develop even further. High pressure has been keeping us dry all summer, and now it might once again keep us from receiving some beneficial rain.

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One final note: I don’t see this as being anything more than a strong nor’easter type of storm in our area, even in the worse-case scenario. In other words, no need to stock up on bread and milk.